Over the past year, CEOs and their senior leadership teams have become far more adept at navigating shifting tariff regimes on traded goods. But there’s an emerging blind spot on many CEO radars: restrictions on cross-border services. The potential impact on businesses is immense. The value of cross-border services will expand at double the rate of global goods in the coming years, according to BCG projections, reaching $11.7 trillion by 2032. Such growth—and the increased exposure to geopolitical disruption that comes with it—isn’t limited to service-intensive sectors like finance, tourism, streaming media, and technology. Across goods-producing industries, CEOs are embedding more digital and data-driven services into their business models to differentiate offerings, build high-margin revenue streams, and innovate more efficiently.
nontariff restrictions on cross-border services—let alone taken steps to
reduce the risks.
Four Actions to Take Now to Mitigate Geopolitical Risks to Services
Over the past year, CEOs and their senior leadership teams have become far more adept at navigating shifting tariff regimes on traded goods. But there’s an emerging blind spot on many CEO radars: restrictions on cross-border services. The potential impact on businesses is immense. The value of cross-border services will expand at double the rate of global goods in the coming years, according to BCG projections, reaching $11.7 trillion by 2032. Such growth—and the increased exposure to geopolitical disruption that comes with it—isn’t limited to service-intensive sectors like finance, tourism, streaming media, and technology. Across goods-producing industries, CEOs are embedding more digital and data-driven services into their business models to differentiate offerings, build high-margin revenue streams, and innovate more efficiently.
As nontariff barriers increasingly influence the flow of cross-border services, CEOs must evolve their trade strategies accordingly. Navigating this shift will require expanding capabilities to anticipate nontariff policy moves, build greater flexibility in commercial models, foster more agile delivery structures, and sustain engagement with policymakers.
CEOs who act now—before rules harden and options narrow—are likely to be far better positioned to protect profitability and stay competitive.
The authors wish to thank Suncica Zdunic for her contribution to this article.